Friday, February 22, 2013

Oscar predictions!

It's almost TIME! Going over this list of nominees, I think there could be some great upsets and surprises this year. In the past few years I've handily guessed who would win Best Picture...but this year things seem more up in the air. I've only taken the top eight categories to measure...

Adapted Screenplay

Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Life of Pi, David Magee

This race is pretty tight - it could go to any of these scripts without surprise. I think Argo and Silver Linings are probably in the lead, but you never know with Lincoln. Personally I really liked the script to Life of Pi... I haven't read the book it was based on, but it would get my vote if I could vote.

Should Win: Life of Pi
Will Win: Argo

Original Screenplay

Flight, John Gatins
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Amour, Michael Haneke
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola

I think Mark Boal's Zero Dark Thirty will and should win this category, even if I do have a soft spot for Moonrise Kingdom. Tarantino's gotten a lot of the script awards this season, though, so he may be up at the podium on Sunday even though his script isn't nearly as good as Boal's.

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained 
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master 
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook 
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Everybody's talking about Tommy Lee Jones, but I want him to lose just to see that grumpy face again from the Golden Globes. Just kidding, he will probably scowl all night regardless. In all seriousness: Jones was good, but I never got 'great' from his performance. I don't know why Arkin was nominated, either. De Niro was better than I've seen him in years, but Hoffman and Waltz were spot on. Waltz has been winning a lot of the other awards (even though his role in Django was much more of a leading role, don't you think?), but does he have the clout to beat Jones? Or could Hoffman grab another Oscar for a worthy (if, to me, expected and kind of boring) performance?

Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role 

Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master

I mean, wouldn't it be a great moment to see Anne Hathaway starting to get up but another actress' name is announced? It won't happen, but it still makes me laugh. I love Anne Hathaway, but she's been really grating on me this awards season with her ubiquitousness and Taylor Swiftian surprise faces. I think Helen Hunt had the best performance of the bunch, but like Waltz her role felt more like a lead role than a supporting one. Anne's performance was great, don't get me wrong, she definitely had the best five minutes of a terrible movie.

Should Win: Helen Hunt
Will Win: Anne Hathaway

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables 
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

There is no greater actor today than Daniel Day-Lewis -- the man can transform into anyone. His Lincoln was astounding, and he should win and will most definitely win. I can't help but think that Joaquin Phoenix was right up there with him, though in a strange, mesmerizing way.

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Joaquin Phoenix
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty 
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook 
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

I loved each of these performances. I think Jessica Chastain should win, but Jennifer Lawrence has been pulling out more actual wins lately (though Riva just won the BAFTA...). They are all deserving, so I wouldn't be upset in this category if any of these ladies took home the prize.

Should Win: Jessica Chastain
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Achievement in Directing

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

This is a great category for an upset this year; most people have their bets on Spielberg but I think Ang Lee, respected director that he is, really has a chance. He's got my vote, too. I really was not impressed by Lincoln's directing; to be honest it was the least impressive of the five movies here but it will probably win because he's Spielberg.

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow Ang Lee
Will Win: Steven Spielberg

Best Motion Picture 

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained

I think Argo's going to take it away (I think?!), but I'd love to see Zero Dark Thirty or Silver Linings Playbook or Life of Pi win! Upset! Upset! I love being surprised, Oscars, let's do this!

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Argo

I'M REALLY EXCITED FOR SUNDAY. Who do you think will win?!

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